Separating fact from inference in fraud investigations

Start with what the record shows

A bank statement can establish that a payment was recorded. A message can establish what was written from a particular account. Neither alone establishes every surrounding fact or who controlled an account.

Label interpretation

An analyst may infer a relationship from timing, repeated identifiers or shared infrastructure. The report should explain that reasoning and its alternatives rather than presenting the inference as a direct observation.

State limitations

Missing records, uncertain attribution and conflicting sources affect confidence. Describing those limits makes the work more useful to readers.

Author: Fraud Response Network